A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
