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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still